Ron Davis

Articles By Ron Davis

Jul 09, 2011

Weekly CoT and Price Action

Open interest in Wheat is quite low; commercials own the long end of things, funds hold about 60% of the shorts and farmers plus small specs the other 40%. Assume for sake of analysis that the wheat crop is going to be much less than a "bumper crop." The position
Jul 06, 2011

Why is the economy weak?

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67969/alan-s-blinder/americas-weak-recovery This is a good, short article by an economist familiar with DC, both as a Federal Reserve vice-chair and as part of Clinton's Council on Economic Affairs. The article helps ground the reader as the already hot political rhetoric gets hotter with the approaching "American Default."
Jul 02, 2011

July 2, 2011

Wheat CoT was unchanged! against last week. I suspect we will see an increase in commercial longs and fund shorts showing up in the next report, given wheat's price declines this week. Unsurprisingly, indicators read "over-sold" but oversold does not imply "end of down." Look for further declines until things
Jun 25, 2011

June 25 2011

The price action in wheat has been terrible for the bulls. Since the WADSE, July prices have come down nearly $2 and December prices have come down about $2.25. As of Tuesday last, the commercials were in sole possession of the longs, holding them at levels last seen in the
Jun 18, 2011

The Wisdom of Unregulated Banking

The dangers of unregulated banking were pointed out by Henry Kaufman, former partner at Salomon Brothers, in his memoir, "On Money and Markets." On page 82, Kaufman wrote,"This is not to say that the market should be left to regulate itself. Such a laissez-faire approach would not work, nor serve
Jun 16, 2011

June 16 2011

Today's ag remarks appear along with financial and geopolitical remarks at http://tweedledeedumtweedledeedee.blogspot.com/
Jun 15, 2011

Today's Entertainment from the Financial Sector

When the London exchanges opened, Forex players begin to buy USD against Euro area currency (GBP, Euro and ChF). Why? Because Greece is perceived as having already fallen into the grease, taking the Euro area from the frying pan into the fire. The world's stock markets were down, hitting swing
Jun 12, 2011

Chinese Corn

China has taken the trouble to deny the possibility of damage to its corn crop from the weather. Drought had portions of the corn-growing regions near to pottery hardness, according to some. Now some 50% or so of the corn growing region is flooded (40% is officially not flooded --
Jun 11, 2011

June 6 CoT

Thursday's WASDE was not a huge market mover, although there had been some caution going into it.Corn came away looking distinctly bullish in price, but the CoT, late as usual, reflected position reduction that took place going into the report. Beans, occupying a middle ground with respect to price action