30 April CoT & Price Action

Published on: 15:10PM Apr 30, 2011

Wheat CoT shows small specs & farmers released a few of their shorts, commercials increased their shorts though small specs still hold twice as many shorts as the commercials. The funds increased their longs somewhat. On a price-action basis, the short term future is unclear. Friday’s action was a strong rally from short-term support. The mid-weed selling was from a slightly higher swing high. If I had to guess long or short on just that basis, I suppose I’d guess long.  I’m still of the opinion that sideways to down it likely for the next few weeks or longer.

The CoT numbers came out before the mid-week selling, so we don’t yet know whether it had an appreciable impact on the player positioning. This CoT (Tuesday, the 26th reporting date) has the small specs and farmers covering some of their shorts while funds increased their longs and commercials increased their shorts. July looks like it could turn bearish, but December looks pretty strong.  With all the grains, look for indecision and uncertainty from now until the crops are in the ground. With the strange weather world wide – the folks who have been so devastated by our tornadoes have my sympathy and my very best wishes – it would not be surprising to see uncertainty continue most of the way into harvest.

Beans found shorts covering and longs selling across the board. This week’s price action in beans was the least bearish/most bullish (not very bullish) of the three major grains. However, the bean chart really looks sideways. For the November contract, think of the range as around 1250 to around 1400, with July about 50¢ higher.