Two weeks ago, December wheat ended the week at 616 and I “proclaimed” 640 was as good as in hand, with a technical projection to 679-ish. Wish I could say I am so smart I knew prices were going to jump instantly. As everyone knows, we finished the week with December at 693. Consider selling part of your crop now if 693 will get the job done for you. There is no more bad news to come from
Corn hasn’t managed 416 yet – still has a dime to go. I see no reason why it should stop here, although you never know for sure until the crops are in. Commercials, funds and small specs are pretty much where they were a week ago. Weather is out of the news in the sense of not being headlines in the media. Unless things are a lot better in the fields than I think, there is room to pass 416 (basis December) before harvest.
Beans are at 1005. That leaves 45¢ to fetch, if my expected minimum prices are to be reached. Funds actually reduced their longs on an up week, while commercials were buying. We are a bit early to proclaim a top, and there is little evidence of a top in the charts. Still, I don’t much like it when funds are not increasing their longs.
Oats actually managed a rally week. If we see a weekly close above 285, we will actually have a shot at 325. I don’t really believe that, but that is what the charts say, & I have found that I’m not smart enough to ignore them.
It would not be unusual or surprising to see prices top in August. Plan to cover your… donkey? Better to be prepared for a fast exit than to be complacent and have a crummy winter because prices suddenly dropped 15% when you weren’t quite ready for it. 15% in less than a week has happened in the past and might happen this year. Be ready.