March 20, 2010 Hedging Thoughts

Published on: 14:29PM Mar 20, 2010
Beans:
 Commercials have been buying beans for the past six weeks or so and are net long almost 57,000 contracts, some 285 million bushels. This is the biggest position since October, 2006. While that implies beans are probably going up. it doesn't tell us exactly when. That beans are likely going beyond $12 basis the current contract, which will become November before harvest, tells farmers "Now Is Not The Time to Hedge Beans."

If you are speculating, prices above 963 basis May should lead to a 10¢ to 20¢ rally. More is possible, of course. That will require a day by day assessment.

Wheat
Commercials hold the most long positions in years, but they have thought wheat was too low since the second quarter of 2008 while wheat has been declining. More important in this case is that the large speculative funds are reducing their short positions.  Unsurprisingly for the season and for the unholy low price, expectations are that prices are more likely to rise than fall over the coming months.

Corn
Funds and Commercials are both long, leaving only small speculators short. Then, again, it is spring -- as of tomorrow -- and at $3.75, corn is not expensive.  To repeat the obvious, this is not the time to sell your corn crop in the futures market.

If you are speculating, prices above 376basis May should lead to a 10¢ to 15¢ rally. More is possible, of course. That will require a day by day assessment.