Meander Time?

Published on: 13:53PM Jun 26, 2010
 Wheat moved down a bit, as suspected. Commercials released a few longs, funds released a few shorts and small specs got a little shorter. Prices need to start back up soon, both in terms of price and in terms of time, to sustain the rally that began two weeks ago.


Oats were the good news bears three weeks ago; now they are the bad news bears. Friday’s sharp selling closed well below the standard error bands, suggesting a down swing next week. Commercials were a bit short going into the week, and are now more short. I don’t normally trade oats, but maybe I should reconsider, short a couple of contracts next week. The weekly chart  would remain bullish under some selling. Even a 30¢ sell off will leave the bullish aspect intact.


Corn got smacked. Even so, the funds and the commercials remain bullish. Both the daily and weekly charts have returned to a firmly neutral stance.


Beans were down, too. Here, the commercials have gone from bullish to neutral, a distressing development for growers.


The four questions on the horizon for the next while will be (1) weather, (2) weather, (3) the world’s economy, and (4) the impact of the Yuan’s revaluation up, as it happens. The economy is important because it affects demand; and the Yuan is important because China is one of our biggest trading partners, so a more valuable Yuan should mean more exports for our farmers.