Only a Little Strange

Published on: 18:11PM Jun 18, 2010
 The stock market has had two up weeks in a row with enough change to look pretty bullish. The wheat market seems to have liked what has been happening, and is up nicely this week making last week look like the absolute bottom for 2010. Oddly, commercials got a little longer this week. Odd, because they often start removing directional bets as soon as they have some profits. The trend following funds, in contrast, tend to add to their group of directional bets as profits increase. The daily wheat chart is immediately below. My guess is prices will drop a little as the bands rise, and when prices get near the bands, the bulls will return.

December Wheat

 

Corn saw somewhat similar action, both in prices and in the actions of commercials and fundies. Corn is not as far above the upper band as wheat, and had a more bullish day Friday, but I don’t see why that will have a lot of impact on next week.

 

December Corn

 

November beans did pretty decently this week as well. The commercials released a few longs, to the small specs with the result that the commercials are a little less long, the small specs a little less short. The fundies couldn’t find a reason to move off top dead center, or so it seems looking at the data. If you look at the chart below, you’ll see that prices for November beans were actually slightly lower in February. You’ll also see the lows of last week were an echo of lows in the end of May. What all this boils down to is, absent world war three (which could send prices in any direction) or another world wide bank meltdown in the next few months (which would send prices down, but is sooooo very unlikely), the lows are in. A 70¢ rally from here, which I think is likely between now and the end of July, would predict a rise to $11.20. That’s not to say prices can’t go above that; merely that they “oughta” get at least that high. When prices reach $11.00, I’ll begin to present thoughts about hedging. Until then, I’m all about being long. Growers are also long, by virtue of (a) having to pay for inputs, then (b) needing to sell crops at a high enough price to pay for inputs, mortgages, food and other silly things life requires. Don’t you really, really feel bad for the heads of Wall Street banks and major oil companies when they tell you how rough they are having it? Me, too.

November Beans


 

 

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