Time Lag

Published on: 17:21PM Jul 04, 2010
The price action across Wednesday, Thursday & Friday came after the reporting for Positions of Traders. As a consequence, this week’s Commitment of Traders reports suffer a bit of time lag, at least where grains are concerned.

Commercials were buying corn as it fell, and funds were covering long positions. The result was that, at reporting time, commercials were carrying most of the long load while fundies were nearly flat.

Beans were somewhat similar in that funds gave up some long positions to commercials.

Wheat sees the commercials pretty much were they were, while the funds got a little less short and small specs got a little more short. Whey the funds want to be short here is a mystery to me, but they are.

Oats, which I didn’t short even though I was playing with the idea (& likely should have done) have seen the commercials add to the short positions while mostly small specs added to the long side.

On a daily price action basis, corn and wheat are bullish while oats are clearly bearish. Beans are sideways with a bearish tone. The big action, as everyone knows, came with Wednesday’s reports. There was a lot of fear prior to that, and all grains & beans had been sold off.

Stocks sold off sharply on Tuesday, so Wednesday’s corn and wheat big rally tells us that the farm markets are now focused on fundamentals: supply, demand and weather. The dollar may be heading lower, or may be “correcting.” Either way, it should have little effect on growers. Crude, which will have a cost impact, has been mostly sideways with a slight bullish bias for the past year. While too early for me to be convinced, it looks like that bias may shift to the bear side. That would be good for growers and for the economy in general.