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Unchanged

Published on: 16:41PM May 29, 2010
 Wheat: Prices a little lower, more bets placed, commercials a little longer, trend following funds a little shorter and a financial week that was… interesting. The continuous charts show prices holding a little above a floor around 445. Real world charts, September and December, look a bit different. September is solidly in a down trend still, while December, the hedging month for growers, is working at turning up. To be sure, we need some news, good (increased demand) or bad (a weather disaster) to get things moving, but the marketplace is suspicious, and rightly so, that something will happen during the next six months or so. A weekly close above 560 basis December will turn me solidly bullish, and a daily close above 525 will turn me “trading bullish.”

Corn: No change. Commercials are close to neutral, fundies are long, index funds are solidly long and prices… well, they were down a nickel basis December. Like wheat, the market is waiting for something to happen.

 

Beans  November beans are even more unchanged in price than wheat or corn, open interest is mostly unchanged and the index funds haven’t moved. Commercials are a little longer, fundies a little less long… looks like a rally is about to start, if the past 18 months predict the immediate future (which is more likely than not, but far from guaranteed). I will be looking to buy beans on upward motion anytime in the next two weeks, with the expectation of a two week or longer rally. I really don’t expect a longer rally until after July 4, but you never know.