Are 2010 Tops In?

Published on: 21:14PM Aug 20, 2010

 Are The Tops In?


Wheat: Yes.

Beans:  Yes.

Corn: Maybe, maybe not but probably close. In the closing 10 minutes Friday, lots of folks got caught with their shorts down, so to speak. The buyers managed to punish shorts with a 6¢ rally in those minutes, a rally that accounted for most of the 7½¢ gain on the day. The high prices have been 438 ¾ on August 5; 437½ Thursday, the 19th and 437¼ yesterday. Friday was quite constructive for the corn chart; next week’s reality will show us whether corn can go higher or if Friday’s end of day rally was not only a trap for the short term bears but also a trap for the longer term bulls. Too bad the regulators don’t oblige the futures markets to disclose data as they do in the equities markets. It would be useful to have reliable open interest numbers available at the end of each day.

CoT review: 

Wheat: Commercials nearly tripled their shorts, from 5,700 contracts to 16,400 contracts, a change of not quite 45 million bushels.

Beans: Commercials increased their shorts by 12,000 contracts or 60 million bushels.

Corn: Commercials increased their shorts by 50,000 contracts or 250 million bushels, not my idea of bullish.