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Are the tops in??

Published on: 16:02PM Aug 06, 2010

 
In wheat, very likely so. On Wednesday I posted -- and it showed up Wednesday but is gone now -- the strong suggestion to hedge 100% of your wheat crop the next day. Again, I'm not clairvoyant: I did NOT know that the market would open limit up, stay there most of the day (hard to buy, easy to sell), go limit up in the night session, only to return to a bit above where it begin, and then end today limit down. What I did know was that all the classic symptoms of being very near the top were present. I hope everyone is happily hedged -- I'll be surprised if we see $8 again in 2010. (I should add that, since I was quite surprised to see 865 wheat in the first place, this is not an iron-clad guarantee.)

Thursday's high in corn was 438. The charts are undecided here, but it will certainly be a huge struggle for corn to get past 448.

November beans got to 1049 on Thursday. The charts don't say the top is in yet. In fact, they look a lot like we will see 1055 or better. It isn't that 1055 is far from 1049; it is just that there is no clear "we're done" sign.

Oats don't look like they want to go up, and that's been their general posture since late June. They did manage 309½ basis December Thursday in the opening. Looks to me like the top is probably in for Oats.

The Commercials this week sold wheat, remained about where they were in corn (mildly short), remained where they were in beans (moderately short) and got shorter in oats where they have been carrying the market shorts since mid-June. Trend following funds bought wheat (a little late, it seems to me) to go slightly long, and held their long positions about even with last week in the other three.