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Are We Confused Yet??

Published on: 13:51PM Jan 06, 2011

Beans controlled losses today, closing close to Tuesday's high. Monday & Tuesday certainly looked bearish, yesterday looked like a whole herd of bulls and today.... maybe yes, maybe no.

Corn was bearish Mon-Tue, bullish yesterday and bearish today. Tomorrow will bring the end of the week and, perhaps, some clarity.

Wheat has decided to occupy the middle ground. It is more bearish than beans but less bearish than corn. 

Crude was back down today with the lowest close we have seen in several days. The notion on the street is that if the Fed said, "Quantitative Easing Is OVER!", crude would drop $10/bbl fairly quickly. In other words, the just-under-$90/bbl price of crude has $10 or so of dollar weakening built into it. Whether that rumor is true is another matter.

Bonds had a small recovery today. Taken in isolation, I'd say the day looks like more selling to come. Looking at the last couple of weeks, the picture is murky. The zip has gone out of the bears' game, which could make them vulnerable to a rally. 

Gold really looks as if it wants to go down. $1320 is easy to imagine ($1370/oz just now). That's not a big drop, given the price and the magnitude of the rise, but  that's what the chart looks like.

Today my favorite political stuff is the German parties that want to leave the Euro to return to the Deutchmark. While I'm not much concerned either way, it is a bit of a change from Inside the Beltway. Incidentally, the National Journal, much of which is available on line, does good work without any bias that I can find. I used to subscribe, but the magazine came weekly -- way more beltway baloney than I am interested in. 

Here's hoping that 2011 brings what American farmers deserve: good crops AND good prices.