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Awaiting Harvest

Published on: 14:43PM Oct 30, 2010

 Longs sold wheat and shorts bought, so both commercial interests and funds are decreasing their exposure to price changes. Farmers remain short, presumably expecting to cover their shorts by delivering product. That usually means prices will stay flat or reverse & head down.

 

Corn saw commercials and funds maintain positions. We appear to be past the betting bulge, so most likely prices will be down from here. The harvest will determine the future. Unlike wheat, corn is not holding its breath to see how Russian planting goes. A good early season (if that’s not too much of a contradiction) in Russia is likely to send wheat head over heels.

Beans found commercials adding to their shorts as funds added to their longs. The funds are buying momentum; when many funds decide, based on whatever algorithm they may use, that the price momentum is out of the market, they will release their longs. Based on the differential between Jan and March, I’d guess beans will head down between now and February. Certainly I’m not ready to get short now.