CoT & Price Action Update Dec 17

Published on: 00:48AM Dec 18, 2010

 CoT

v    This week finds the commercials essentially flat wheat while the fundies are long, and growers and/or small speculators are short. This is a small change from last week with the funds buying and the commercials selling. The tone seems slightly bearish.

v    The funds bought a bit more corn, the commercials and small specs sold it to them. The market tone remains mildly bullish.

v    Beans look exactly like corn, were it not the numbers are different. Funds bought a small amount more, commercials sold a bit more and the general market tone is slightly bullish.

v    Oats are more of the same – except the price action doesn’t look so hot. But that comes next.

 

Price-Action

v    Monday brought a small over-bought condition to oats, not surprising with nine days of upward prices. Thursday saw a good bit of selling and buying but prices went nowhere. Friday saw little motion as well. If forced to bet, I’d bet down. However, since I’m not obliged to guess, I’ll venture a strong, "Wait & See."

v    Wheat spent the week drizzling down. The shape of the chart is not particularly bearish, but sliding down is not at all bullish. Must be the season for such things, no?

v    Corn had a good week, moving up some 20¢, but the volume was drying up which is not generally considered bullish. On the other hand, how many traders want to rush to put on new positions just before Christmas? Not so many, I would think.

v    Beans were up a quarter (25¢) this week, but for all that, I’ve seen healthier looking markets sent to slaughter. Wednesday had the volume and price action to set up a sell-off, but none came. This would be somewhat bullish in a non-holiday environment, but one can, at best, only guess what will happen after the New Year.

My best advice for the next two weeks is, "Don’t worry about them – enjoy your family and friends. Eat a little too much, laugh a lot. Then face next year after it gets here. The Good Lord knows, we get old too soon and smart too late."