Growl! sez the large and grumpy bear.

Published on: 17:17PM Nov 20, 2010

Commitment of Traders 

 Wheat: Commerrcials have gone back to net long, funds are ever so slightly negative and farmers and/or small speculators remain short

Corn: Funds sold some positions, and commercials bought some, but as of this report (last Tuesday) funds were still quite bullish and commercials happy to sell to the funds.

Beans: The CoT numbers are different, but the pattern the same as corn; funds very long, commercials very short. In both cases the farmers and/or small speculators are short.

Oats: Commercials short, funds long but both are collapsing their positions. Farmers and/or small specs are long – the only one of the four in which that is true.


Price Action

            Wheat: A bearish week despite the rally of Wednesday and Thursday. 699 basis March will take me out of my position; I’m thinking I should add to my short on a close below 670.

            Corn: A bearish week here, as well, with a particularly bearish formation on the Thursday-Friday pair. I would not be surprised to see a fair amount of to-and-fro action between here and the 480 region. If 475-480 basis March doesn’t hold up, 390 becomes pretty reasonable.

            Beans: I’m thinking 1070 is in the cross hairs. The reversal in beans was sudden, not particularly surprising, though, unless one felt a need to get the exact day and time right. I’m just not smart enough for that – and I am well aware that markets are what mathematicians call "chaotic" which means there is some order and a lot of disorder. It also means that calling exact outcomes and timing is not possible.