Jan 23 Update

Published on: 09:46AM Jan 23, 2011

 CoT

This week the funds added a few contracts to their long position which the commercials sold to them. Small specs/farmers did not change their slightly short position.

Oats saw a small  rebound in both fund and small spec longs, sold to the by commercials.

Beans had a hairline increase in fund longs, sold to the by commercials. Small specs decreased their small line of shorts a little.

In the wheat market everyone moved a small distance towards flat. Long funds sold a few contracts, short commercials and small specs bought a few contracts. Wheat is interesting because it had a clearly up price week but the CoT looks like it should go down soon. Not so the others.

 

Price Action

Corn had some mid-week selling sandwiched between layers of buying. Friday was a bit of a waiting day, though I can't say what the players are waiting for. The week as a whole was bullish, and the charts, both daily and weekly remain bulllish.

Oats had the same mid-week selling, but without much rebound. I suspect the betting is there will be a bit of upward action this week, but not too much and certainly not a trend continuation (the trend is sideways -- if you want to call that a trend) up like corn.

Beans went no place, though you'd not think that from the CoT numbers. The daily price pattern looks more bearish than bullish, yet it seems that the betting, like oats, is that next week 'oughta' be up.

Wheat, just to continue being odd man out, had a weak Monday followed by four rally days. I'm a bit mystified by the CoT action compared to the price action and compared to the rest of the group. It seems to say that the non-wheat will be up next week (maybe) but that wheat will go down.

Overall, wheat and oats don't  show any technical reasons for belief other than continued sideways action. Corn is still trending up, and beans up trend is weakening just a bit.