March Forth -- or not

Published on: 13:56PM Mar 04, 2011

 Wheat is having itself a little rally. The funds are hoping that means Russia and China have disasters that will take prices up, up and away. The May chart is a bit ambiguous; the December chart looks like a 40¢+ rise to 946-ish.

Beans rose this week, but that didn't attract appreciable betting by any of the groups. The three scenarios (duh!) are (1) goes through $14 basis November and goes up from there; (2) goes a little through $14, but that attracts selling, starting a big decline; (3) something else. 

Corn shows a lovely, 40¢ wedge, basis December. May just shows "been going up... don't know about tomorrow." The big players are playing wait and see. A close above 620 (Dec) will make a setup to buy.

In the world, Russia is an unknown; Australia has had bad weather, but mostly not in wheat regions. South American crops have drawn scant attention, so can be presumed to be in good shape but not bumper crops. China will not come close to being able to feed itself. AND THEN there is India. Grain rotting in the warehouses while a third of the population starves. Inefficiency gone berzerk, that's what.

In our own politics, it is the usual SNAFU. The politicians all think that only opinions inside the beltway -- and the money donated by lobbyists -- are important. The rest of the country, the part that feeds them, grows fibers for clothing, fights their wars, both those that should be fought and those that shouldn't, and all the rest of what we do -- we are not so important. And that represents a change from 5 years ago or 50 years ago how??

Here's hoping you wind up with a heck of a good crop this year. Europe and Asia won't be so good, so maybe you can put a few centavos in the bank agains the proverbial rainy day.