More strangeness

Published on: 20:10PM Mar 17, 2011

Wheat had to get way oversold before anyone realized the world wouldn't end tomorrow. And, of course, corn and beans went along for the ride, all because there might be readiaton leaked in Japan. Crude went down, stocks went down, bonds went up...

Before that, crude was skyrocketing because there was civil war in Libya. As I write, the headlines are that the UN will enforce a no-fly zone in Libya to protect non-combatants. That bit of news now means that everything in Japan is irrelevant; only the headlines from the past five minutes matter.

Crude has risen from yesterday's close of $99/bbl to above $103.50. Corn was limit up during the pit session today, and is up another 13¢ now. Today beans and wheat were up about 45¢. Just now wheat is up another 9¢ but, curiously, beans are flat.

Although ya never know for sure what tomorrow's weather will be, my estimate is that all the fellows above (or are they gals?) will be up tomorrow, and likely go a bit, perhaps quite a bit, higher next week. Market participants seem to be focusing on their guesses and gut feeling about the general economy... did I mention that stocks went down when grains did, and have gone up simultaneously as well?... rather than worrying about mundane matters like weather, South American harvests, Chinese droughts and boring stuff like that. 

If you are trading, you might want to keep it short term, because the market is likely to be choppy for a while. If you are not a day-trader, you might want to spend your time doing almost anything other than guessing what's next in the markets. I recommend pie and ice cream. Or, if you are worried about radiation, heart disease, high cholesterol or a seemingly endless number of other things for which it is a partial antidote, let me suggest some red wine.