Thanksgiving Report

Published on: 13:04PM Nov 27, 2010

Happy Turkey Day to everyone. I hope all were just a little too well fed and that everyone’s favorite football team won. And all other good wishes for this, the first holiday of our Holiday Season.

Now on to the short week of trading.

Commitment of Traders: 

Oats: no appreciable change in commercial shorts or fund longs from last week.

Wheat: no appreciable change in commercial longs or fund shorts from last week.

Corn and Beans look like Oats. You don’t suppose everyone packed it in for the holiday, do you?

Price-Action Analysis

Corn, Beans and Wheat all have set up wedges on the daily chart. More often than not, these are continuation patterns. In this case that means down. But note carefully that "more often than not" need be only 51% .

We have all been through the End of Year season before. It tends towards bearishness along with a fair amount of indecision. That indecision manifests as up then down followed by down then up with a little sideways stirred in.

Next week will be normal trading. Economic results, meaning how much folks spend for Christmas presents, are likely to move markets from time to time. International politics, such as going to war with North Korea, also move markets once in a while. As we have seen, that can include the agricultural markets. Since your 2010 crop is either sold or hedged, don’t let the craziness worry you. Next year, like most years, prices will likely be weather/production/consumption controlled, and this isn’t the time to worry about it. This is the time to enjoy your family, rebuild energy for spring planting, and all that follows.