I'm glad Bob put this piece in place. I think about things from a trader's point of view, not from the perspective of "hold 'em until they fold 'em." So it would not have occurred to me to make the point Bob just made.
It is certainly possible this year's crop contracts will go off the boards at much higher prices at July delivery time than shortly after the crops are in, but it is historically unlikely. I completely agree with Bob -- the risk to reward ratio is very unfavorable.