Wheat is dominated by managed money. What this tends to mean is wheat prices will remain higher than they should longer than they should then drop quickly. Users & Producers are exiting positions, as are fund managers. I would think that all farmers are thinking about is getting the crops in safely. I expect we will have a nice drop in prices between Halloween and Easter – at least, we usually do. As a trader, I’m just biding my time, waiting for the right place to short wheat.
Managed money is also the dog, not the tail, in the bean market, at least in terms of controlling the largest piece of the market. Mother Nature is, as we all know, the Big Dog. Beans are being swept higher by corn’s run. Not long ago, they were moving up on the coattails of the big wheat rally. Beans are also a candidate for shorting after while.
Corn still has more User/Producer control than Managed Money, but only by the slimmest of margins. Right now User/Producers are about 77% short, and everyone is waiting on the weather & the USDA reports. Corn is on a tear, and will stop when it stops. Corn also is likely to be a candidate for traders to short as the crop comes in.