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Weekly CoT & Price Action

Published on: 13:06PM Nov 07, 2010

Funds were a little longer in oats, beans, corn and wheat. Commercials were a little shorter except in wheat where they were a lot less long. Commercials in wheat dropped from long 13,600 contracts to long only 1,600 contracts. It appears they think the end of the rally is in sight, or have some other reasons for the rather sharp change.           

 

Where price action is concerned, all save beans had a slightly up week; beans had a big up week. Technically, beans move this week should either be the end of bullishness for the year or the start of another wave up. Reality may be different from technical analysis which is historically based but does not purport to predict the future – merely the odds. If wheat were to close below 680 next Friday, I would expect a drop to 590 or lower. On the other hand, the market doesn’t look to me like it is ready to go down just yet. When beans break, expect all others to go with them.