Weekly CoT and Price Action

Published on: 16:31PM Jul 09, 2011


Open interest in Wheat is quite low; commercials own the long end of things, funds hold about 60% of the shorts and farmers plus small specs the other 40%. Assume for sake of analysis that the wheat crop is going to be much less than a "bumper crop." The position holdings will be nice for bulls, if the "IFs" turn into "WHENs". 

December wheat spent most of the past two weeks reading oversold. Generally, prices do not go straight up from oversold; rather, they tend to go down more but weakly enough that oversold doesn't recur.  September is slightly, but only slightly, less bearish. In terms of targeting, 650 was the first downside target basis Dec. Looks like prices should go on down at least to 620.

Beans are very sideways. In May, prices got just under $13, then bounced. This week was spent bouncing from the same price levels. At this point, a reasonable guess is up to $14 the get tired. If, at any time, bearish news comes from the farms, $14 is likely to be the launching platform. CoT numbers are almost even, with the net longs coming from funds and the short side provided by commercials and farmers.

Corn saw positional CoT shrinkage this report, by which I mean commercials let go of some shorts while funds let go of some longs. Monday saw sharp selling that took prices almost all the way to a mid-March swing low in September's contract. Not quite as much was managed in Dec. Since then, prices have been all up. While I'm not prepared to take permanent position, my short term view is more up motion, likely to reach $7 or $7.20 basis December.