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Weekly CoT Update

Published on: 18:27PM Apr 23, 2011

 If you are interested in what the CoT numbers in crude oil all mean, take a look at  http://jrond113.ipage.com/TweedleDum/. There you will also find a link to an interview with David Stockman which is well worth viewing.

Beans saw the bulls bring prices up a little, and the charts look like folks are waiting for some crop facts. The CoT shows funds reduced their longs and commercials offset some of their shorts. Everything seems to moving towards neutral.

July corn price action was a bit ragged, but December corn was mostly bullish. The funds increased their long positions and, of course, commercials sold to the funds, increasing their shorts. In the seemingly unlikely event of a bumper crop, there will be some seriously unhappy fundies and some very happy commercials.

July wheat looks like it wants to go up and December looks even more like it wants to be bullish. We still have that strange situation in which small specs & farmers are carrying most of the short position, albeit not a huge one, and the funds are carrying the long side. I'll guess that the Chinese will grossly understate their crop shortfall for as long as possible, and that they will try to buy new crop contracts in stealth mode. It will take a heck of a crop in Russia, Argentina and Australia, along with pretty good crops in the US to keep prices down. Or so it seems to me, but don't take that as other than mouth-music. I'm not long wheat.