Speculation on what the USDA correction will be.

Published on: 08:02AM Oct 28, 2008

Chore time for me isn't what it used to be when I was growing up on our eastern Iowa farm, but taking care of two horses in the morning before I head in for work gives me a little time to think about the day ahead. Each morning, stop at this spot to get a feeling for the "tone of the day" - and some attitude about agriculture and the markets.

I was thinking…

About the correction USDA will make to the October Crop Production and Supply & Demand Reports for at least one major commodity this morning at 7:30 a.m. CT.

Here's the announcement from USDA's Newsroom: "USDA's National
Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will release a corrected October
Crop Production report on Tuesday, October 28, at 7:30 a.m. CT. The World
Agricultural Outlook Board will issue an abbreviated World Agriculture
Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report at the same time. Revised
forecasts in the WASDE will reflect the updates in the Crop Production

USDA gave no indication in the announcement which crop(s) will be the subject of the correction. Checks with several market-watchers late Monday seemed to center on 2008 harvested corn acres. Because USDA increased harvested soybean acres 2.138 million in the October Crop Production Report, but trimmed just 93,000 from harvested corn acres, these market-watchers speculate USDA may have neglected to subtract acres from the corn tally that moved over to soybeans.

However, long-time USDA-watchers caution that even with a change in personnel, missing something "that basic" seems unlikely.

Obviously... the other "school of thought" on the correction was that USDA somehow, someway, double-counted some soybean acres to result in the eye-popping increase reported in the October Crop Production Report.

Everyone agrees the correction will be "significant" and will impact the Supply & Demand tables for corn, soybeans/meal/oil, cotton, rice OR sorghum. Reason: These crops get S&D tables, which excludes citrus from the mix and USDA's wheat, barley and oat crop estimates were released in the September Small Grains Annual Summary and were not part of the October Crop Production Report. Sugar is another potential crop that could see the correction.

Pro Farmer will provide reaction to the correction to it's Members shortly after this report correction is released this morning.