Have Soybeans Found a NEW Price Direction?

Published on: 17:50PM Oct 09, 2014

Soybeans continue to search for nearby direction. Technically the market feels stuck somewhere between $9.00 and $9.50. Here at home traders are obviously waiting to see tomorrow's USDA estimates. Similar to corn most are wanting to see how high they are going to raise yields and if they will be cutting any significant amount of harvested acres. From a global viewpoint, there are a few more mixed signals starting to arise.  The bulls continue to talk about the extremely dry conditions early on in several parts of Brazil.  Even though there are some rains in the Brazilian forecast they don't appear to be enough to make a dent in what's needed in many areas. Late or delayed planting in  these parts could push the soybean crop back into tougher growing conditions later in the year.  On the flip-side the bears are talking about how the current USDA import estimate for China at 74 MMTs might be 1-3 MMTs too high.  There is also talk by the bears that the current USDA estimate for Argentine soybean production could be 1-2 MMTs too conservative. Bottom-line, there is starting to be several more balls thrown up in the air.  In response, projecting short-term direction is becoming much more difficult.  From a longer-term perspective, I still doubt the lows are in place, but at no time can you rule out a $0.50 to $1.00 rally off the most recent bottom ($9.04).  Continuing to take a very conservative bearish stance still feels as if its the right play.  NOT getting yourself overextended and being able to weather all unforeseen storms is the key to your survival in these types of waters. Be smart! Don't get overly aggressive in either direction.    CLICK HERE for my daily report....