- How much lower will "harvested" acres fall? My guess is by another 1-3 million
- How much lower will corn "demand" fall? Several moving parts, but if need be, you have to believe the USDA could slash another 400 to 500 million.
- What about China? The USDA cut their Chinese corn import estimate from 7 million tons down to 5 million tons. I am not sure this is accurate, Chinese corn continues to trade at record highs and the country continues to buy corn. Something just doesn't add up here. Where there is some there is generally fire
- How about grain production in Russia? The USDA made another massive cut down to 49 million tons. Remember last month they went from 56 million down to 53 million, now they cut another 4 million. I am not so sure we have found the bottom, and I have to believe a lack of supply will really hurt Russian exports down the road. Kazakhstan production is also a big question?
- What about Ukraine production? The USDA currently estimates Ukraine corn production at 24 million tons while the trade is thinking it is closer to 20 million. Moral of the story, there may not be nearly as much cheap Ukraine corn to go around as some are thinking.
- The USDA is counting on a huge corn crop coming out of South America next year, but they are also counting on a huge soybean crop. In my opinion something has to give, and if South America runs into even the slightest production problems...watch out!
- The USDA is saying the world can essentially wait for South American soybeans to become available next year by lowering US 12/13 soy exports. I question this. With no global substitute for higher protein supplies, price increases may not be able to ration demand, therefore we maybe looking at a runaway train.
We are making some moves in response to what the market is showing us. You can sign-up here to receive a FREE trial of my Daily Grain and Livestock commentary in which you will see where I stand on cash sales and some strategies on how you can take advantage of "Money-Flow" and the Outside Markets. Just click here - Van Trump Report