My break down of the USDA numbers...

Published on: 11:57AM May 10, 2013

Corn stock moved higher: Old-crop from 749 million bushels in April to 759 million; New-crop from 2.177 billion bushels in the Feb Ag Forum down to 2.004 billion.  

  • Ethanol bumped higher to 4.6 billion vs. April estimate at 4.55 ; 13/14 estimated at 4.85 vs 4.675 at Feb Ag Forum 
  • Feed for corn left unchanged 4.400 billion bushels; 13/14 corn feed estimated at 5.325 billion vs. 5.40 billion in Feb Ag Forum 
  • Exports lowered 50 million bushels to 750 million vs April estimate at 800 million; 13/14 lowered to 1.3 billion vs. 1.5 billion at Feb Ag Forum 
  • Imports unchanged at April estimates of 125 million. 13/14 at 25 million. 
  • Acreage left unchanged at 97.3 million acres in March Intentions. Looking for acreage to be reduced in June report or later. Harvested acres still 89.5M
  • Yield moved lower to 158 estimated at 163.6 bushels per acre at Feb Ag Forum
  • Total Production for 13/14 lowered to 14.140 from the 14.530 billion estimate. 
  • South American production: Brazil from 74 million metric tons to 76; Argentina production left unchanged at 26.5 million metric tons to 
  • Global stocks actually moved slightly higher in old crop from 125.290 in April to 125.43; New-crop 13/14 raised higher to 154.63 (This is a big number).

Soybean stocks moved lower: Old-crop from 125 million bushels in April to 125 in May; New-crop from 250 million bushels in the Feb Ag Forum to 265.

  • Crush left unchanged vs the 1.635 estimate in April. Exports also left unchanged at 1.350 billion. Hard to believe???  Imports also left unchanged at 20 million bushels. Even though it seems like more are heading are way.  
  • Acreage estimate unchanged at 77.1 million estimated in March Intentions 
  • Total Production for 13/14 moved slightly lower to 3.390 from the 3.405 billion last estimated 
  • Chinese 12/13 demand moved lower from 61 million metric tons to 59 million metric tons (reduced from earlier estimates of 63 million). 13/14 Chinese demand pushed to 69MMT's
  • South American production: Brazil from 83.5 million metric tons to 83.5; Argentina 51.5 million metric tons to 51.0
  • Global stocks moved slightly lower in old crop 62.46 vs. 62.63 in April; New-crop 13/14 raised higher to 74.96. 

Wheat stocks left unchanged at 731 million bushels; New-crop pushed higher from 639 million to 670  million.

  • HRW crop lowered from 1.004 billion last year to 768 million 
  • SRW crop raised from 420 million last year to 501 million. 
  • All US wheat lowered from 2.269 billion last year down to 2.057
  • Exports unchanged at 1.025 billion 
  • Feed lowered to 360 million vs 375 million last month
  • Global stocks moved lower in old crop from 182.260 in April down to 180.16; New-crop raised higher to 186.38.
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