Where Do Corn Prices Find Support?

Published on: 09:47AM Sep 03, 2014

Corn traders continue to digesting the best crop conditions we have seen in the past two decades. The USDA pushed this years crop to 74% rated "Good-to-Excellent" up by +1% compared to last week, but massively ahead of the 5-year 54% average and last years 56% "Good-to-Excellent" rating. Perhaps even more impressive is the fact only 7% of the entire crop is rated "Poor-to-Very Poor" compared to the 5-year average of 21%.  As I've been saying all along, there just aren't that many bad areas this year. Keep in mind when compared to last year the crop rating is much higher for many of the top-producing states in the US: MO is rated +45% better than last year; ND +38% better than last year; IA +37%; WI +26%; IL +25%; MN +19%; SD +13%; IN +8%; NE & MI +7%. In my opinion, the improvement in conditions now sets up the trade to test the August 12th low at $3.58 vs. the DEC14 contract. Once that level is breached, many technicians, including myself suspect the $3.20 area becomes the next downside target.  I hate to sound like a broken record or use an old cliché "big crop's tend to get bigger..." but it is what it is.  Keep in mind FC Stone yesterday (after the close) bumped their crop estimate to 14.595 billion on a yield of 174 bushels per acre! This is some 572 million bushels more than the most recent USDA estimate. I should also mention many producers I spoke with two to three weeks ago and were only expecting yields at or around their APH levels are now seeing corn come out of the field 20-30 bushels per acre higher than anticipated.  The harvest in the Delta and down South continues to roll: GA is now thought to be close to 75% harvested; LA 67% harvested; SC 63% complete; TX 55%; MS 42%; NC 22%; AL 21%; AR 19%; KY 7%.                             CLICK HERE for my daily report...