Closing Grain Commentary 6/16/10

Published on: 16:36PM Jun 16, 2010
Today’s action in the corn market had July corn trade as much as 6¾ cents higher before settling the day 2½ cents higher at $3.56¼ . Early in the trading session, we issued two corn-related recommendations. The first recommendation was to sell the remaining 15% of old crop 2009-2010 corn in the cash market. The second recommendation was to place orders to sell another 10% of 2010-2011 corn at $3.84 basis the December futures. The midday weather run still appears to favor positive planting/growing conditions for most areas throughout the Corn Belt. Tomorrow morning at 7:30 a.m., the USDA will release the weekly export sales numbers for corn, wheat and beans. The estimates for corn are between 600,000 mt and 900,000 mt. In our opinion, the corn market still appears to be range-bound. For producers who are looking to catch up on the hedge recommendations that we have issued or simply looking to get further protection as we continue on through the summer, please give your broker a call.
The soybean market had a positive day as July beans finished 8¼ cents higher at $9.57¾ . New crop November beans also finished 9 cents stronger at $9.24½. There is the potential to see continued buying in the bean complex, and in our opinion these rallies need to be taken advantage of. We still feel that with a large South American crop coming online, our export business will likely continue to decrease, causing the rallies we see to be short-lived. Having your soybean orders in above the market will be a good idea to capture bounces like we saw early in the session today. As mentioned above, the USDA will release exports tomorrow morning. The estimates for the bean exports are between 350,000 mt and 550,000 mt. The actual numbers will be available in our morning letter and also on the EHedger Morning Hotline. If you feel that you need to catch up on your bean-hedging strategies, please give us a call and we can discuss the available strategies for your farm operation.
July Chicago wheat finished the day 9½ cents higher at $9.57¾ . As we have been discussing lately, the wheat market has appeared to be oversold compared to corn and beans. The Canadian Wheat Board report could be what traders need to see to start covering some of the massive spec shorts in the wheat market. We could see further short covering from here, which could give us the strength to make more sales if you are still underhedged. For producers who are able to store wheat, there are still strategies to sell deferred futures and capture the carry that remains in the market. The export estimates for tomorrow morning's report are between 150,000 mt and 350,000 mt. Please call your broker to discuss the best strategies available for your wheat operation.

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