Closing Grain Commentary July 12th

Published on: 18:46PM Jul 12, 2010

Today the market had new crop Corn, Soybeans and Chicago Wheat all lower by the close.  Export inspections all came in below expectations this morning.  A stronger Dollar today and weaker energies also contributed to today's weakness.

December corn settled 3 ½ cents lower at $3.91 ¾. Corn has held good resistance below $4 and continued that trend today. Crop ratings for corn came in up 2 points in the good/excellent category to 73%. This was expected to drop a percent so this could be seen as bearish to start tonight's trade. Crop ratings for soybeans came in as expected and dropped 1% to 65% good/excellent.

As far as weather goes there is concern of a ridge setting up in the 11-15 day forecast. Currently there is plenty of moisture in the Midwest and Delta so we are not too concerned at this point but it is something to monitor. Friday's USDA Supply and Demand Report was neutral but last week's export sales were good and helped provide support. July grain contracts go off the board on Wednesday and could be volatile especially for beans.

Our opinion is that the crop as a whole looks solid and we need to continue to monitor the weather as we move forward. We feel that for producers that need to catch up on cash sales or hedge protection should be placing scaled up orders in at these to take advantage of this rally. It may go higher from here but having resting orders placed will allow the producer to take advantage of a continuing rally. Extended forecasts will always be constantly changing, in our opinion this is volatility that needs to be taken advantage of. For the producer that is worried about selling the grain in a rallying market there are call options to protect these sales. Please get in touch with your broker to discuss a strategy for your individual operation

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