EHedger Closing Grains Commentary 6/30/09

Published on: 17:18PM Jun 30, 2009
 
SETTLEMENTS 6/30
         
 
July 09 Corn
347 ¾
- 29 ¼
Dec 09 Corn
367 ¼
- 30
July 09 Beans
1225
+ 10
Nov 09 Beans
981
- 2 ½
July 09 Wheat
512 ¾
- 15 ¾
July 09 KC Wheat
572 ¼
- 9 ¼
July 09 Min Wheat
636
- 15 ¾
July 09 Meal
413.2
+ 1.8
July 09 Oil
34.87
- 0.91
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 






Overview:
 
Corn closed limit down after the USDA revealed a surprise jump in US planted acreage in this morning’s acreage and stocks update. The USDA also revealed a higher-than-anticipated quarterly stocks figure that added to corn’s woes, while also revealing higher soybean acres and stocks. The full figures of today’s USDA releases are below.

 
Overall, corn took the heaviest hit on the day, but we believe new crop soybeans remain highly vulnerable to pressure as well going forward, and so continue to urge producers to top up sales and hedges during any rallies.
 
In addition to being buffeted by the USDA report, today marked the end of the quarter, so institutional money managers will have been active squaring up positions throughout the session. It’ll be interesting to see whether investors are willing to pour funds back into our arena for July following today’s active decline, or whether they’ve been scared off by the recent volatility. Only time will tell, so Wednesday’s day session will be one to watch.
 
As we noted above, we’ll be releasing a more detailed outlook now that the acreage jigsaw has been somewhat assembled, so look out for that sometime on Wednesday.
 
 
 
 
 
USDA June 2009 Planting Report in millions of acres (released June 30, 2009, 7:30 a.m. CST)
Crop
USDA June 30 Estimate
Average Guess
Range
USDA March 31
Prospective
Plantings
USDA 2008 Final
 
Corn
87.035
83.961
82.474 - 86.000
84.986
85.982
 
Soybeans
77.483
78.121
75.300 - 79.631
76.024
75.718
 
All Wheat
59.775
58.243
57.600 - 58.600
58.638
63.147
 
Spring Wheat
13.772
13.097
12.826 - 13.800
13.304
14.135
 
Durum
2.555
2.389
2.300 - 2.440
2.445
2.731
 
 
 
 
USDA June 2009 Quarterly Grain Stocks Report in billions of bushels (released June 30, 2009, 7:30 a.m. CST)
Crop
USDA June Estimate
Average Guess
Range
USDA March 1, 2009 Stocks
Corn
4.266
4.178
4.064 - 4.321
6.958
Soybeans
0.597
0.585
0.559 - 0.620
1.302
Wheat
0.667
0.670
0.640 - 0.687
1.037
 
 
 
 
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