EHedger Closing Grains Commentary 9/09/09

Published on: 17:23PM Sep 09, 2009
Sep 09 Corn
305 ½     
+ 2 ¾
Dec 09 Corn
309 ¾   
+ 2 ¼
Sep 09 Beans
961 ½
- 7 ½ 
Nov 09 Beans
928 ½ 
- 8 
Dec 09 Wheat
456 ¼ 
- 2 ¾  
Dec 09 KC Wheat
472 ½
- 5 ½
Dec 09 Min Wheat
486 ½   
- 1 ¾  
Dec 09 Meal
+ 0.8
Dec 09 Oil
- 0.52

Soybeans and wheat closed lower, while corn closed higher. The continued weakness in the U.S. dollar provided some support during the session, but it was not enough for the grains to hold strength into the close. Overall, at this point the yield outlooks appear promising for corn and soybeans. Early soybeans being harvested out of the delta are better than thought, with many reports of 50+ bushels/acre. Obviously it is still early, but with many fields "turning" we should get more and more yield reports in the coming weeks. A frost could still damage the corn and soybean crops, but this threat is eroding quickly. Obviously the weather is the main focus for the markets at this point, but we do have a USDA report this Friday. 
The average trade guess for US corn production 12.932 vs 12.761 Aug; avg yld 161.5 vs 159.5. The average trade guess for US bean production 3.256 vs 3.199 Aug; avg yld 42.4 vs 41.7. The average trade guess for '08-09 corn carryout 1.712 vs 1.720 Aug; '09-10 1.768 vs 1.621 Aug. The average trade guess for '08-09 soybean carryout 102 vs 110 Aug; '09-10 226 vs 210 Aug.
If you have deep in the money corn puts, please give us a call so we can roll them down and take some money off the table. Also, you can still get downside protection in beans for fairly cheap going into the report. 
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