EHedger Closing Grains Commentary 9/14/09

Published on: 17:15PM Sep 14, 2009
Sep 09 Corn
305 ¾     
- 8 ¾ 
Dec 09 Corn
317 ½   
- 2 ¼ 
Sep 09 Beans
- 64 ½
Nov 09 Beans
+ 3 
Dec 09 Wheat
- 14 ¼  
Dec 09 KC Wheat
467 ½
- 10 ¼ 
Dec 09 Min Wheat
- 11
Dec 09 Meal
+ 2.6
Dec 09 Oil
- 0.05

Corn, Soybeans End Mixed; Weather Forecasts Fail To Excite
Corn and beans saw a two-sided trade while wheat continued to sell off. Over the weekend we finally got the possible freeze forecast that everyone has been waiting for. However, the market did not rally off of this news. I think there are a number of possible reasons for this. There are a lot of traders that are long beans and under water in their trades. Also, producers are still holding a large amount of grain that must be priced and moved. In addition, stories about possible trade disputes with China and more talk about tighter regulation on position limits put pressure on commodities in general.
We will continue to watch the weather closely, but it looks like there is a good chance that we have a big corn crop on the way and producers are still holding a large amount of un-priced grain. In our opinion, this will cause corn to have another sharp break as we head into December. Demand is picking up, and there are some real positive signs ahead for the corn market. These things will matter eventually, but for the next 60 days corn prices could come under a lot of pressure. In the meantime, I would look to...
Looking at the soybean complex, the market is still very "long" soybeans and soybean meal. In addition, pod counts were high on the USDA repot and with plenty of precipitation the potential is there for a big national bean yield average. Without any frost problems, we should see soybeans and soymeal prices continue to soften. 


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