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EHedger Closing Grains Commentary 9/16/09

Published on: 17:24PM Sep 16, 2009
 
SETTLEMENTS 9/16
         
 
Dec 09 Corn
336  
- 10 ½ 
Nov 09 Beans
951 ¼ 
- 8 ¾  
Dec 09 Wheat
468 ½
- 2 
Dec 09 KC Wheat
480
- 2 ¼
Dec 09 Min Wheat
500 ¼   
+ ¾  
Dec 09 Meal
294
- 4.3
Dec 09 Oil
34.66
- 0.16
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 





 
              Corn, beans and wheat all closed lower. However, late day buying did move prices significantly off the lows by the close. The frost concern late next week continues to be the main focus of the market. The morning weather models had “a strong front that looks to bring chances for some frost and even some freezing temps in the northern Midwest by the second half of next week.” However, in the midday run the GFS took the cold air out of the forecast for the Midwest at the end of next week. In addition, the forecast does not see any cold weather threats during the 11-16 day forecast.
 
Obviously, the frost forecast is still a long way off. Eight days away is an eternity in terms of an accurate weather forecast. In between now and then there is a good chance the frost will be put in and taken out of the forecast numerous times. Overall, to see what type of damage, if any, the weather will actually do we will have to wait and see exactly how cold the weather gets and how far south the cold temps actually reach. Until that time, the market will probably continue to chop around and overreact to every model run. Either way producers need to remember that just last week December corn was trading 302 and November beans 892. Sure if we do have a hard freeze prices could go much higher. However, if this frost misses and farmers wait until they are sure the crop is going to finish up without a frost, corn and beans could easily be at new lows. Don't get me wrong, we would love to see corn and bean prices take off from these levels, but even more than that what we don't want to see is corn and bean prices take out the lows with farmers still holding large amounts of unsold grain. Therefore, we recommend… Please give us a call to discuss different strategies.  
 
 
 
 
 
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