Favorable weather outlooks drives grains lower; old crop soybeans the exception 6/18/09

Published on: 17:08PM Jun 18, 2009
July 09 Corn
403 ¼
- 4 ½
Dec 09 Corn
- 4 ¾
July 09 Beans
1216 ¾
+ 10 ½
Nov 09 Beans
1045 ½
- 4 ½
July 09 Wheat
561 ½
- 4 ½
July 09 KC Wheat
- 3 ¾
July 09 Min Wheat
706 ¾
- 4 ½
July 09 Meal
+ 4.6
July 09 Oil
- 0.18

Old crop soybeans and old crop soybean meal closed higher; everything else closed lower. Ideal weather forecasts weighed on corn, new crop soybean and wheat prices while decent soybean sales and strong soybean meal exports kept the old crop soybeans and meal supported. The tight old crop soybean outlook combined with fund liquidation of the old crop/new crop spreads is causing the soybean spreads to whip around violently. Yesterday, old crop soybeans lost over 20-cents to new crop during the day and today they gained nearly 20-cents. Good weather outlooks for the next two weeks and weak feed demand outlooks are pressuring corn and soybeans. Tight soybean stocks are keeping old crop prices supported on breaks. These two fundamental differences are keeping prices close to several technical levels. With the highly anticipated June 30th report just around the corner, many traders are adjusting their positions. The general outlook is for a tight old crop stocks figure, and increase of 1-2 million soybean acres and a decrease of 1 million corn acres. Hopefully we will get one more selling opportunity before the report for new crop corn and soybeans. For those of you who did get caught up on sales already, I would look to buy some additional corn calls as Dec. corn breaks from here. Technically, $4.10 is a strong support level in the December futures. Hopefully this will be able to hold before the report. I cannot stress strongly enough that a producer should not go into this report without any downside protection for corn and soybeans. Give us a call if you need any help getting positioned before the report.

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