Grains End Mostly Higher On Choppy Trade

Published on: 17:51PM Jan 26, 2009
Mar 09 Corn
393 ¾
+3 1/4
May 09 Corn
404 ¾
+3 ¼
Mar 09 Beans
May 09 Beans
+ ½
Mar 09 Wheat
592 ½
+9 ¾
May 09 Wheat
605 ¼
+9 ¾
Mar KC Wheat
621 ¾
+11 1/4
Mar Min Wheat
665 ½
+4 3/4
Mar 09 Meal
Mar 09 Bean Oil
Grains closed mixed. All three grains opened sharply higher and slowly sold off throughout the day. A strong stock market, a weak U.S. dollar, strong crude oil and mixed weather helped on the open. Argentina saw some decent rains over the weekend and amounts were variable and widespread. This caused mixed feelings in the soybean complex and caused the soybean market to trade on both sides of the market. More rains are forecasted for the weekend and again next week. These forecasts kept pressure on the soybean market throughout the day. With the recent rains and more rains forecast, the soybean market may need additional news to continue the rally. The crop has already been hurt, but the recent rains have helped. If Argentina sees additional rains this weekend and again next week that should be enough to prevent further losses. Chinese soybean demand has been very strong, and will need to pick back up next week to keep the market supported. Corn and wheat have remained supported along with the soybeans. The “funds” are net shorts in the corn and large shorts in the wheat. There seems to be some unwinding of short positions in the corn and wheat and long positions in the soybeans. Argentina continues to deny export permits for wheat and Russia has been supporting their domestic market. These two factors have helped rally the world wheat price, making the U.S. more competitive. With soybeans and wheat remaining supported, corn has had to keep pace. With Argentina losing acres and the U.S. losing acres, the wheat market could remain supported on large breaks as we head into the growing season, and the large global and U.S. stocks should keep wheat under pressure on rallies. Look to make sales above $6.50 and avoid them below $5.25 for now. Total acres for corn and soybeans could still increase by up to 6+ million. Without demand picking up, corn and soybean ending stocks look to soar in 2009 (unless weather doesn’t cooperate!). If you have not made 2009 sales yet, give your broker a call. There are many different ways to help protect these prices.
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