Grains choppy ahead of report 9/10/09

Published on: 16:41PM Sep 10, 2009
Sep 09 Corn
308 ¾  
+ 3 ¼
Dec 09 Corn
315 ¾   
+ 6
Sep 09 Beans
+ 11 ½
Nov 09 Beans
925 ¾ 
- 2 ¾  
Dec 09 Wheat
457 ½
+ 1 ¼  
Dec 09 KC Wheat
473 ½
+ 1
Dec 09 Min Wheat
- 2 ½  
Dec 09 Meal
+ 0.2
Dec 09 Oil
- 0.06

Corn and wheat closed higher and soybeans closed lower. The “trade” is short corn and wheat and long soybeans, so today felt like evening up before tomorrow’s report. Early yield reports continue to come in better than expected for corn and soybeans. This is obviously very early and there hasn’t been nearly enough data collected to give us a good feel for the overall crop size. The USDA report is tomorrow and we will have to see what the USDA says. There haven’t been a lot of bushels harvested yet, so tomorrow’s number may not be as reliable as we may hope. Either way, I will comment on the numbers in more detail in the Weekend wrap-up letter. Please give us a call before or after the report if you have any questions. We are always in the office early talking to customers, so feel free to call in. 
The average trade guess for US corn production 12.932 vs 12.761 Aug; avg yld 161.5 vs 159.5.  The average trade guess for '08-09 corn carryout 1.712 vs 1.720 Aug; '09-10 1.768 vs 1.621 Aug.
The average trade guess for US bean production 3.256 vs 3.199 Aug; avg yld 42.4 vs 41.7. The average trade guess for '08-09 soybean carryout 102 vs 110 Aug; '09-10 226 vs 210 Aug.

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