Soybeans and corn follow outside markets higher, wheat makes new 2-1/2 year lows 9/08/09

Published on: 16:54PM Sep 08, 2009
Sep 09 Corn
302 ¾    
+ 2 ¼
Dec 09 Corn
307 ½  
+ 1 ¼
Sep 09 Beans
+ 8
Nov 09 Beans
936 ½
+ 14 ½ 
Dec 09 Wheat
- 12 ¾ 
Dec 09 KC Wheat
- 12
Dec 09 Min Wheat
488 ¼  
- 10 ¼ 
Dec 09 Meal
+ 3.4
Dec 09 Oil
+ 0.57

Corn and soybeans closed higher and wheat closed lower. Mostly favorable weather outlooks (lack of frost and warmer weather) pushed prices lower overnight. However, the U.S. dollar Index broke to fresh 1-year lows overnight. This helped all commodities rally early in the day. The soybean complex was able to remain higher throughout the day while corn and wheat struggled. Wheat remained in negative territory throughout the day and this helped weigh on corn prices. Wheat made new lows for the move and are now $1.25 off of their August highs! Wheat is a great example of what a market can do with bearish fundamentals. The wheat market has ignored any bullish outside factors and is only concerned with its own fundamentals. The wheat market could be a pre-cursor to how the corn and soybean markets will look after their harvests. If you remember, analysts tried to “kill” the wheat crop last spring. Talks of disease and frost damage flooded the news wires, similar to the stories that circulated about corn this summer and to the stories currently circulating about soybeans. Some of these stories were probably accurate, but in the end it was evident that these stories were not good representations of the national crop. This could very well end up being the case for corn and soybeans. Without a September frost, this looks to be the case. So far, yield outlooks look promising for corn and soybeans. Early soybeans being harvested out of the delta are better than thought with many reports of 50+ bushels/acre. Obviously it is still early, but with many fields “turning” we should get more and more yield reports in the coming weeks. A frost could still damage the corn and soybean crops, but this threat is eroding quickly. 
                 The wild card in my opinion has always been Illinois. Illinois remained behind the entire year and many areas looked “rough” throughout the summer. Good rains helped many areas recover and it will be important to see how these areas end up. Corn and soybeans throughout Northern Illinois look much better than I thought they would back in June. We do have some white mold and aphids around, but overall the soybeans look good. Pod counts are high and ample moisture should fill pods in nicely. Corn also looks good. If we can have a late summer our area could end up with record production. There are still low spots and some bad corn around, but the rest of the crop looks outstanding. Many producers in the area are seeing yield checks running in the 260+ range. Now, I don’t expect any producers to average that high but we could see many average over 210 this year. Populations are the highest I have seen with most running in the 37K-40K range. Plenty of moisture and cool temps have allowed for heavy ear weights and this could push yields higher than expected. The problem in our area could be how fast we are able to dry down the corn. We had problems drying down the corn last year and we could see the same problem this year. We will still end up with a lot of bushels, but the drying expense could be a real pain in the neck. Hopefully we will see this warm weather last into November! 
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