Soybeans lead grain lower 9/03/09

Published on: 16:28PM Sep 03, 2009
Sep 09 Corn
- 2 ¼
Dec 09 Corn
315 ¾  
- 3 ½
Sep 09 Beans
- 27 ¼
Nov 09 Beans
941 ½
- 9 ½
Sep 09 Wheat
478 ¾ 
- 7
Sep 09 KC Wheat
499 ¼
- 7 ¾
Sep 09 Min Wheat
505 ¾  
- 10 ½
Dec 09 Meal
- 5.8
Dec 09 Oil
- 0.05

Corn, soybeans and wheat all closed lower today. Good sales this morning helped corn and soybeans open higher, but the market quickly broke into negative territory. Old crop soybeans and soybean meal led the way down again today. With harvest underway in the Delta, people are no longer willing to pay high premiums for “old crop” supplies with “new crop” supplies now arriving. Interior basis levels broke as much as $1.30/bushel is some areas…today! To add insult to injury, Informa Economics estimated the national corn yield to end up between 165 and 168 bushels/acre and soybeans between 43 and 44 bu./acre. After attending the Farm Progress show this week, it is evident that most people are expecting soybeans yields to decline. So, as more people start to expect the national yield to increase, we should see more pressure on the soybean market. Most analysts that I heard were very bullish soybeans and neutral to slightly bearish corn. Unfortunately, it was also evident that there are a lot of farmers holding on to un-priced grain “hoping” for some higher prices. I even heard one analyst tell the audience to “write your Congressman and tell them to start building a national corn reserve… because $3 corn is a crime”. Well, hoping the government is going to bailout the corn farmer is not a good marketing strategy. The threat of an early frost has delayed the farmer from making sales ahead of harvest. With such a large amount of un-priced grain out there, we could see a larger break than we might expect this fall/winter. I don’t know what the national yield will end up being, but all signs point to a big crop. If Informa’s numbers are correct, (and without an early frost I think they could be), the market has not yet priced in these yields.   As I have said before, people are talking about a record corn crop, but very few have even considered a record soybean yield. There is another “frost threat” that came out on the Midday run. The soybean market has broken 87-cents since Monday morning, so it is due for a rally. If the market gives you another rally tomorrow, producers should at least get some downside protection ahead of the weekend.   If you have not done anything, at least have downside protection on the bushels that are not protected with crop insurance. Please give us a call if you have any questions. 
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