Soybeans rally sharply; corn and wheat unable to follow 7/28/09

Published on: 16:36PM Jul 28, 2009
Sep 09 Corn
- 1 ¼ 
Dec 09 Corn
- 3 ¾ 
Aug 09 Beans
1052 ¾  
+ 31 ½  
Nov 09 Beans
926 ¾  
+ 20 ¼  
Sep 09 Wheat
514 ¾  
- 5 ¾
Sep 09 KC Wheat
- 1 ¾ 
Sep 09 Min Wheat
599 ¼  
+ 1 ¾ 
Dec 09 Meal
+ 6.8
Dec 09 Oil
+ 0.25

        Corn and wheat closed lower and soybeans closed higher. Just as soybeans were unable to follow corn and wheat higher yesterday, corn and wheat were unable to follow soybeans higher today. August soybeans were certainly the driver today. August soybeans opened higher following a stronger Chinese market overnight and never looked back. First notice day for the August contracts is Friday. We are likely seeing some positioning/ rolling from August to the September and November contracts. With the expectation of tight supplies ahead of harvest, few commercials have been willing to give up ownership during delivery. This was certainly a good close for August soybeans and we could easily see another rally tomorrow. We are quickly approaching the “end game” for old crop soybeans. The price of August soybeans will be determined by a very small group of buyers and sellers. If August soybeans have a sharp rally from here and new crop soybeans follow, I would use that opportunity to get caught up on sales if you have not done so already. Although I do not think it would last long, it wouldn’t surprise me to see November soybeans rally up to $9.50-$9.80 area. If this happens, you need to be ready to make sales in my opinion. Corn and wheat are still having a difficult time holding on to rallies. Although I think we could see corn find support ahead of the August 12th report, we don’t think corn will be able to put a low in until the farmer sells the remaining old crop bushels ahead of harvest. I would look to make sales if Dec. futures reach the $3.50-3.60 area ahead of the report. Again, each farmer is unique so give us a call if you would like a personalized hedging strategy ahead of the report.
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