December Corn at Lowest Settlement Since March 28th

Published on: 16:19PM May 14, 2014

The day session started out slow but found heavy sell pressure led by the wheat contract.  July wheat closed 19 cents lower at $6.90 ¼.  The negative wheat trade also spurred selling in the corn market.  Funds were estimated to be heavy sellers of both at midday while total volume was light.  December corn closed 6 cents lower at $4.89.  July soybeans managed to rally nearly 20 cents off the session lows to finish +3 cents on the day at $14.86 ¾.  The resiliency of July soybeans continues to surprise many traders since there is no news event to spur sudden fund inflows or outflows.

Tomorrow we will get export sales at 7:30am CST.  The average guess is calling for 0 – 50,000 MTs of old crop beans and 200,000 – 350,000 MTs of new crop.  Old crop corn is expected to be 200,000 – 400,000 MTs and new crop at 50,000 – 250,000.  Wheat sales are expected to be between 250,000 – 600,000 MTs, all 14-15.

We still maintain that the path of least resistance is lower for the next 30 days. We just had a bearish WASDE report, pollination is a ways off, we are back to an average planting pace, and we continue to import soybeans at a strong pace from South America.  When planting finally wraps up, there could be a lag of bullish information to "feed the bulls".

The December corn chart doesn’t look very pretty.  We still have a gap above the market from the weekend.  We have settled below trendline support and the 50 day.  The next support is the 38.2% retracement level of $4.86, and then below there at $4.76. 

December 2014 Corn

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