EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 11-7-2011

Published on: 13:33PM Nov 07, 2011

It was another wild day in the grains this time heading lower.  For corn it is pretty amazing how well it has held its trading range over the last 3 weeks staying right at the 200 day moving average.  Leading into this report it is expected that we won’t see much more movement unless there is some massive liquidation from MF Positions that are getting transferred without the total funds (at least that was the rumor today).

Near the grain close the CME Group petitioned the USDA to request that the November 9th Supply and Demand report to get pushed back until Monday the 14th to allow time for all the positions/money to be transferred adequately.  This is very unprecedented and we will update you with any fresh news to their response.  As of right now the report will still be held on Wednesday November 9th.

Our report estimates are listed in the spreadsheet below.  We still think that the market may be overestimating demand, and underestimating supply for corn.  We are still going with a 41.5 soybean yield which would be unchanged from the latest USDA report.  With such a large world wheat stocks number we expect it will continue to weigh on feed grain prices, especially the most expensive one-US corn.  If you have extra bushels to sell before the report, it may not be a bad idea to lock some more in while the basis is decent for many areas.

If you have any questions please let us know.  

Chart 11.7.11

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Best Regards,



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