EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 11/29/12

Published on: 16:23PM Nov 29, 2012

Weak export sales reduced the early optimism in grains.  December corn and December wheat contracts were hit hardest with heavy bearspreading across the board.  Wheat has finished higher for 7 consecutive trading sessions and was "due" for a corrective trading session.

Still wheat remains well above the low end of its range as the drought continues to threaten winter wheat crops.  We will have our next crop ratings report on Monday but we have had a month of record-low ratings during November.  The outcome of these low ratings is still unclear as springtime weather is still paramount but the market agrees that it certainly can’t be good for production.

Weekly Export Sales

Sales were well below the average of estimates and the market had a hard time holding support for the rest of the day.

December Corn

                                      Estimated Range                             Actual

Corn:                           400,000 – 650,000 MTs                      263,500 MTs

Soybeans:                   500,000 – 700,000 MTs                      319,100 MTs

Wheat:                        300,000 – 500,000 MTs                      279,300 MTs

Soyoil:                         100,000 – 150,000 MTS                     121,500 MTs

SoyMeal:                     100,000 – 250,000 MTs                      365,100 MTs


Wheat and corn are both suspended in the same situation… they can’t overextend pricewise as they still need to compete in the world market.  The market has already priced in the Argentine weather problems and the poor winter wheat crop conditions, now it is up to demand to keep the rally going.  India has approved 2.5 million MTs for export and more may be on the way to weigh on world prices.

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March Corn 

Best Regards, 



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