EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 12/10/12

Published on: 16:43PM Dec 10, 2012

Grains were weaker today while soybeans rallied late in the trading session.  Pre-positioning ahead of the December WASDE report seems to favor soybeans over corn.  Bear-spreading was prevalent across most grain and oilseed markets.

We aren’t expecting any major surprises for tomorrow.  The average market guess is calling for a 2 million MT decline in Argentine corn production but a rise in US carryout to 663 million bushels.  Export sales have been dismal but much of that should be reflective in today’s price already.

The market is anticipating a slight drop in US soybean carryout from the strong export demand most notably from China. The average analyst estimate is calling for a 130 million bushel carryout in the US (down 10 million from the November estimate).

The USDA announced a sale of wheat to Egypt for 115,000 MTs.  We are once again competitively priced in the world and are at the low end of a massive price range (see chart).  I wouldn’t be surprised to find support especially with the dry conditions for HRW.

Wheat Chart

Without much fresh bullish information March corn seems poised to test its September lows.  Weather is improving in Argentina and export demand has been non-existent.

Corn Chart

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