EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 12/3/12

Published on: 16:25PM Dec 03, 2012

Monday CBOT markets were mixed to start the month.  March corn closed 2 cents higher at $7.54 ¾, January soybeans up 15 cents at $14.53 ¾, and March wheat down 2 ¾ cents at $8.60 ¾.

Stronger manufacturing data out of China was supportive for early hour trading but poor export inspections and declining outside markets weighed on grains.

Export Inspections (million bushels)

                                                        Actual   Expected

Corn:                                                 9.62         24.5

Soybeans:                                        51.08        58.5

Wheat:                                              14.18       19.0


Much of the strength was from beginning of the month money-flow entering the market.  We also had Egypt buying 285,000 MTs of wheat over the weekend 165,000 MTs of which was from the US.  Even with this sale wheat held the least amount of support by the close.

There were no major changes to the midday South American forecast.  Argentina’s forecast is still too wet for fieldwork this week.  Deteriorating wheat conditions and delayed planting of summer crops is giving the market a bullish tilt.

Wheat and corn are both suspended in the same situation… they can’t overextend pricewise as they still need to compete in the world market.  The market has already priced in the Argentine weather problems and the poor US winter wheat crop conditions, now it is up to demand to keep the rally going.  It is important to note that soybean demand remains very strong.  Exports are running ahead of schedule and the November NOPA crush was 9 million bushels more than expected.

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Best Regards, 



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