EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 2-2-2012

Published on: 15:48PM Feb 02, 2012

Grains finished mixed with corn and beans holding steady and wheat selling off.  March corn finished 1 cent higher at $6.43, March beans up 1 ¾ cents at $12.17, and March beans down 11 ½ cents at $6.62 ¾.

Weekly Export Sales:

Corn                                                   912,000 MTs for 2011/2012 (high end of estimates)

Soybeans                                            308,400 MTs for 2011/2012 (low end of estimates)

Wheat                                                518,900 MTs for 2011/2012 (as expected)

We have included our estimates for Supply and Demand for this year and next in the chart below.  We used the 16 year trendline yields to fill in the estimates for production purposes.  These came out to be 162.2 bpa for corn, 43.5 bpa for soybeans, and 44.9 bpa for wheat.  Obviously we have had weather problems the last couple of years which has resulted in below trendline yields, but we can’t rely on having weather problems this year to keep prices supported.  This is one of the reasons we have used strategies to cover downside risk but still allow for upside potential.

Best Regards,



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