EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 7-18-2011

Published on: 07:58AM Jul 19, 2011

Grains finished lower today led down by corn. December corn finished 8 cents lower at $6.77, November beans ¾ of a cent lower at $13.86 ¼, and December wheat 5 ¼ cents lower at $7.18 ¼.

Weather is still key for price action. Since the forecast hasn't really changed much for the worse over the weekend, traders seem to be liquidating some of their long positions. Sunday night when the market reopened many analysts were calling for a higher opening. The market quickly traded lower and came into the day on the lows.

Towards the end of the trading session grains found support possibly in anticipation of a "bullish" crop conditions report that would be out at 3pm today. Crop conditions did end of dropping. For corn, there was a 3 percent reduction in the good-to-excellent category while beans had a 2% reduction. Corn silking is at 35% compared to 47% for the 5 year average. Soybeans are 40% blooming compared to 52% for the 5 year average. Winter wheat is at 68% harvest compared to 72% on average. Crop conditions for spring wheat actually improved in the excellent category but between the good-to-excellent categories they were unchanged at 73%. We may see a small boost in corn prices at 6 pm tonight as this was a slightly "friendly" report. 

Something to also note: today grains didn't seem to be overly affected from the sharply lower trade in the outside markets. The global economic problems which have affected grains in the past have not been getting the same weight as usual, which is not so surprising in a weather market. On the other hand other commodities like gold seem to be getting a boost from the uncertainty, gold finished above $1600 today which is a new all time high.

Any morning or midday changes to the forecast can make for volatile intraday swings this week during pollination. We recommend staying with current hedge recommendations. If you would like to double-check your positions using AMMO, please call your broker to discuss.

Have a great week!

Best Regards,




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