EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 7-20-2011

Published on: 15:24PM Jul 20, 2011

Despite the weather forecast still calling for hot and dry conditions throughout the Midwest, December corn ended up settling 9 ½ cents lower.  November soybeans were 2 cents higher, and December wheat 8 ½ cents higher.

The midday forecast was kept mostly unchanged today. As we finish up this week rains are expected for the weekend. Next week is still calling for another round heat/drying and it seems as though the market has already priced this risk premium in.

There was not a whole lot of fresh news for the market to react to today.  The Argentine food inspectors union called off their most recent strike, resuming export shipments. US Weekly export sales are expected tomorrow morning at 7:30 am.  Estimated sales are as follows (in 1000’s of MTs):

Corn                                      900-1400

Soybeans                               400-550

Wheat                                   300-500

Source: Reuters

If weather continues to come in with problems in the extended forecasts, or they take out rain we could easily see corn/beans go after their contract highs for new crop.  If they end up reducing the ridge or increasing precipitation, we could just as easily see this extra risk premium come right out of the market.  We like to remain with current hedges, and look to be long Sept calls if you want more upside coverage to take you through the rest of the summer.  Please call your broker for details on the Sept options.

Best Regards,




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