EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 7-27-2011

Published on: 15:09PM Jul 27, 2011

After a more favorable weather market coming into this morning, as well as a sharp break in the outside markets had corn down over 10 cents on the open.  Throughout the morning the market started making its way back higher until it finished on the highs of the day.  December corn finished 4 ¾ cents higher at $6.91 ½.  November beans finished 8 ¼ cents lower at $13.80 ½, and December wheat was up 10 ¾ cents at $7.45 ¼.

Tomorrow we have census crush and weekly export sales coming out in the morning.  Crush is estimated to be approximately 124.97 with a range of 124.5-125.4.  Meal stocks are estimated to be 370,600.

Estimates for weekly exports sales are as follows:

Corn:                           550,000-950,000 MTs

Soybeans:                    550,000-850,000 MTs

Wheat:                       300,000-500,000 MTs

Our opinion hasn’t changed much, especially with a better forecast this morning.  Overall I think the rains we have had combined with the forecast could turn out to put more downward pressure on the market.  Right now the strongest demand we have seems to be in the futures.  We have witnessed demand destruction in the ethanol numbers, as well as the livestock.  For us to remain priced where we are in the global market I believe we will have to end up seeing another sharp break in the dollar, or further weather events to lower yields. 

The rally has been hinged on money coming into the market from a dollar collapse, or adverse weather events, and if neither of these happen we could see the market start to correct.  We are coming to a point where producers will be thinking about what they are going to have for bushels over and on top of what they already have sold.  And this is the first time in a long time we have willing sellers starting to enter the market again. Will the bulls be able to continue to provide this support?

It is a good idea to go over your hedges again to make sure your operation has adequate coverage.  If you want extra protection on bushels expected over and on top of your guaranteed production, please call your broker to go over some put strategies.

Best Regards,



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