EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 8-9-2011

Published on: 15:44PM Aug 09, 2011

Grains were mixed today after trading sharply lower overnight.  December corn finished 2 ½ cents higher at $6.88 ½, November soybeans down 11 ¾ at $12.99 ¾, December wheat up 9 cents at $7.03 ¾.

With the stock market turbulence, grains have undoubtedly been highly affected in the short term swings. After the FOMC minutes were released we eventually found very strong support for the outside markets which could end up pushing grains higher on the overnight open.

Besides the stock market, we also had the crop ratings released last night which were "friendly" for corn and "bearish" for soybeans.  We could see this in the corn to bean ratio in today’s trade.  On top of this, the average trade guesses came in for the August 11th report and they are lowering their corn production estimates quite heavily while keeping soybean production estimates slightly lower from the last USDA numbers.

Here are the averages from the Reuters poll:

Source                                 Corn       Avg yld         Soybeans    Avg yld

Average trade estimate        13.082    155.589          3.187       42.775

Highest trade estimate         13.410    158.000          3.590       43.400

Lowest trade estimate          12.775    152.100          3.115       42.000

USDA July                             13.470    158.700          3.225       43.400

USDA 2010 final                    12.447     152.800         3.329       43.500

The market is expected to remain volatile right through the August report.  If you want any additional protection for the report, tomorrow is the last trading day to get something on for the report.  Please call your broker in the morning if you would like to go over your positions.

Best Regards,



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